Promising Young Core: Why I’m High on the Detroit Pistons

Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham

The Detroit Pistons have not made the playoffs since 2019. They haven't won a playoff series since 2008. Not a single player remains from the playoff team in 2019, and the Pistons finished dead last in the NBA this past season with 17 wins. 

Despite being tied for the best odds to land the first overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, they fell to the fifth selection. With this information, you may think the Pistons rebuild is dead in the water. I'm a bit more optimistic on the future of the franchise. 

Let's start with the head of the snake, Cade Cunningham. The biggest reason I'm so high on the Pistons is simple: I think Cade Cunningham is going to be very good, very soon. Cade was the no-doubt number 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft for good reason. He’s got elite size to play point guard at 6’6” 220 lbs and showed his offensive talent in college averaging 20.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 44/40/85 shooting splits. In the 76 total NBA games we have seen from Cade over his first two seasons, he has averaged 17.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. 

Cade's numbers are fairly impressive, but what makes me such a believer is the tape. My favorite part about Cade is that he always plays at his own tempo. He rarely lets defenders speed him up and can match physical defenders since he’s got great positional size. This will be key for Cade as a playmaker since he can get to his spots on the floor and also see over defenses. This makes me think that he will be the type of guard that elevates everyone's game around him since he can see playmaking opportunities so easily. Elite playmakers usually develop the skill of playing at their own pace, so the fact that Cade has flashed this ability early on is exciting. 

Let's take an even closer look into Cade's passing. His rookie year he had 356 total assists, 179 of these dimes led to points at the rim, while 125 of them led to 3’s. That is 85.4% of his assists leading to either a bucket at the rim or a three. This is important to point out, as efficient offenses have a large portion of buckets come from these two types of looks. 

For context, let's compare it to previous rookies that were in similar situations as Cade: Luka Doncic and Trae Young. All three of these players were high picks that came in with passing pedigree and were asked to be their teams primary on-ball creators from day one. About 89% of Luka’s rookie year assists led to buckets at the rim or threes; Trae Young was at 91.73% in the same stat. 

What stands out to me when I look at the assist splits for the three players is that Cade was close with them when it came to creating shots at the rim for his teammates, but Young and Luka were way ahead in terms of creating three-point opportunities. You can chalk some of this up to the fact that Cade has had a lack of knockdown three-point shooters around him, but some of this has changed for the upcoming season. 

One off-ball shooter that will be key for the Pistons is Bojan Bogdanovic. He led the team in scoring this past season with some ridiculous shooting splits of 48.8% from the field, 41.1% from three, and 88.4% from the line while averaging 21.6 points per game. Although Bojan is 34 years old and isn't a vital piece to the young core of the Pistons, I'm interested to see what a full season of Cade having shooting around him looks like. In the 12 games that Cade was able to play with Bojan to start the 2022-2023 season, Bojan was the leading beneficiary of Cades assists (25 of Cades 74 assists were to Bojan).

Joe Harris will also provide some much needed spacing for this Pistons squad in the upcoming season. The Pistons traded for Harris during the offseason and I see no problems with acquiring a career 43.7% three point shooter for cash considerations.

Alec Burks is the third veteran wing on the Pistons that can shoot the rock. He shot 41.4% from three on 4.7 attempts per game. Last year was his first year with Detroit, and I like what he brings off the bench as a backup wing that will most likely average around double digits. He averaged 12.8 points per game last season in 51 games. 

Overall, I think that these off-ball threats are great fits next to their franchise cornerstone. If Cade has the passing vision that I think he has, he will make life easy for these veterans. Not only this, but the added spacing will help Cade score more since he loves to attack the rim and also work out of the mid-range. 

With this being said, I think that the number one beneficiary of a full season of Cade Cunningham will be the Pistons presumed center of the future: Jalen Duren.

Jalen Duren

Duren had an impressive rookie year, averaging 9.1 points, 8.9 boards, and 0.9 blocks per game. He led the Pistons in total blocks and rebounds while shooting an astounding 64.8% from the field. What makes Duren so intriguing is that he got progressively better as the season went on and his role expanded. In the 31 games that he started, his number went up to 10.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. 

The tape is simple for Duren, he dunks and rebounds everything. An insane 41.2% of Duren’s shot attempts were dunks in his rookie year, which ranked second in the whole league. His role should be straightforward for the Pistons in year two. He’s got great size and dunking ability to be a roll man for Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey (who we will get to). He will also get easy buckets by standing in the dunker spot and receiving dumpdowns or lobs off of drives. He is also capable of cleaning up the glass for putbacks on offense. 

The key for Duren to bring his game to the next level will be how good his rim protection is. He's got great size to be a rim protector (6’11” with a 7’5” wingspan) and showed a decent amount of potential on this end in his rookie year. 

He averaged only 0.9 blocks per game in his rookie year, but I think that with a more consistent role in year two, we could see this number get closer to 2 blocks a game. If that's the case, we are looking at a double-double machine with great rim protection. Overall, you have to be happy with a 19-year-old center that just made all-rookie second team.

Jaden Ivey is another key to the rebuild puzzle for Detroit. I was high on Ivey coming out of college, and I didn't have many complaints with his rookie season. He averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.9 rebounds and made all-rookie second team alongside Duren. 

I think that Ivey playing next to two point guards in Cade Cunningham and the newly acquired Monte Morris will really help him progress. It will simplify the game for him and let him do what he’s best at on offense, which is attacking the basket and getting downhill. With that being said, I think that having the ball in his hands so much his rookie year will benefit him in the long run in terms of decision-making. His usage rate of 25.4 led the team and was second among rookies to only Paolo Banchero.

The turnovers were definitely a problem, as he averaged a tad over 3 a game, but he's only 20 years old and he won't be asked to be the lead initiator for the Pistons in the future when playing beside Cade. He may not turn into a great playmaker, but the fact that he puts so much pressure on the rim with his athleticism will open up easy passes for him. I like him as a secondary ball handler and playmaker for the Pistons down the road. 

Ausar Thompson

Ausar Thompson is the most recent addition to this young core. Ausar’s gifts are obvious when it comes to his defensive impact, athleticism, and playmaking. He won't be asked to do too much offensively in his first year, which I think will help him ease into this side of the ball in the NBA. He will bring value right away as a defender with his blend of size (6’7” 218 lbs) and instincts. He's also fairly far along in his ability to find teammates. Summer League should always be taken with a grain of salt, but I did love how Ausar impacted the game in a variety of ways. 

I was a bit surprised that the Pistons didn't opt for a more proven shooter in the draft to pair next to Cade and Ivey, but I like the fit of Ausar the more I think about it. Ausar has the most defensive potential out of the three, and he can help ease some of the playmaking load. His long term offensive ceiling will be determined by how well he can shoot since he’ll be playing the three, meaning he will be off the ball most of the time. His jumper is less of a project than his twin brothers’, but there's still a long way to go for him to be a consistent shooter.

Ausar isn't the only one who needs to improve his shooting. A very key development for the Pistons will be the shooting for both Cade and Ivey. If you have guards that can't shoot at a high clip, your offensive potential as a team is hindered badly.

I’m a believer in Cade's jumper, even though he's shot a rather abysmal 30.9% from three through 76 career games. His mechanics don't give you much to worry about. He tucks his elbow well and has a good wrist flick. His release is very smooth, especially off the dribble and in the mid range. 

He shot a high clip from three in college (40.0%) and has shot great from the free throw line in both college (84.6) and the NBA (84.4) so the shooting touch is there. I expect to see a rather significant boost in both his 3-point and true shooting percentages in year three. 

Ivey did not have the shooting pedigree that Cade had coming out of college, but he shot a respectable 34.3% from three in his rookie year while also being tied for 2nd in 3-pointers made by rookies this season. What's promising about Ivey is that his long-range shooting has gotten significantly better since his freshman year of college. He jumped from 25.8% his freshman year to 35.8% his sophomore year. This shows he's putting in the necessary work to become a good shooter. His mechanics are solid, but I think that he would benefit tremendously by becoming more lethal off catch-and-shoot opportunities and quickening his jumper. 

On the topic of Detroit's guards, it seems Killian Hayes is heading into a make or break year with the Pistons. It will be the final year of his rookie contract and he hasn't carved out a legitimate role in the NBA yet. He is only 22 years old, but the lack of shooting and finishing ability is concerning. 

Hayes shot 37.7% from the field, 28.0% from three, and 52.7% on shots less than 5 feet away from the basket. He showed a bit of playmaking chops in a bigger role last season, averaging 6.2 assists per game, but this was without Cade Cunningham playing most of the season. He won't have the ball in his hands nearly as much this year, and he isn't a threat off the ball at this point, which makes it hard to play him next to Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. 

Isaiah Stewart

The last part of the Pistons current young core is the slew of young big men they have. As of now, their back up big men are Isaiah Stewart, Marvin Bagley lll, and James Wiseman. Stewart is the best of the three, and they just signed him to an extension of 4-years, $64 million. I'm not sure if they see him as the long-term power forward next to Duren, or they extended him to have a back-up big that can play the 4 and the 5. 

Either way, Stewart is a solid big to have on your roster. He's only 22 years old, and has flashed potential as a rebounder and versatility on the offensive end. It will be interesting to see the Pistons plans of Stewart and Duren sharing the court together. Stewart only shot 32.7% from three on 4.1 attempts per game, so he doesn't provide much spacing.

Long-term, I think Stewart is more of a backup big that can run some small ball 5. I like what he brings to the table as a tough nosed defender and rebounder. He also can make plays in the paint despite being a bit undersized at 6’8”. His shooting will be the deciding factor in terms of him playing next to Duren for years to come. 

Bagley and Wiseman are both lottery tickets at this point. They share a similar career arc, as both were picked second overall in their drafts and did not produce a whole lot with their original teams. Wiseman averaged 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds in his 24 games with the Pistons, while Bagley put up 12.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in 42 games.

They play similar roles on offense as big men who can roll to the basket and clean up plays down low. They don't provide much as shooters or playmakers, so I'm not sure how much of an asset they are on this end. They aren't huge difference makers on the defensive end either at this point, as both averaged under a block a game and aren’t athletic enough to be considered switchable defenders. 

I don't see anything wrong with the Pistons taking a chance on these young big men and assessing who is the better fit. They have a logjam of non-shooting big men with Duren, Bagley, and Wiseman, but I think this upcoming season will help them decide if they want to keep Bagley and/or Wiseman as a part of this young core. With that being said, I think it would be a good idea to focus on getting a power forward that can stretch the floor next to Duren long term, since Bojan Bogdanovic is 34 years old. 

Monty Williams

The biggest addition to the Pistons team this offseason was coach Monty Williams. Williams inherited a Suns team in the 2019-2020 season that was fresh off a 19-win season. Two years later, the Suns went 51-21 and came two wins shy of an NBA Finals trophy. In his 3-season tenure as head coach with Phoenix, he had a win-loss record of 194-115, while winning coach of the year in 2021. 

I’m interested to see how Williams will tailor his offensive scheme to this Pistons roster, considering they don't have the proven offensive weapons that the Suns had. Having Chris Paul run your offense for three years sure helps things run smoothly on the offensive end, but I think the trio of Cade Cunningham, Monte Morris, and Jaden Ivey will be able to make sound decisions while running Williams' offense. Jalen Duren could thrive in the Deandre Ayton type of role, and the shooting of Bogdanovic, Joe Harris, and Alec Burks will help space out the offense.

Overall, I love the foundation that the Pistons have built in the last couple years. I see Cade and Ivey having the type of season that proves they are a backcourt to build around. Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren have the opportunity to solidify themselves as the starting small forward and center for the foreseeable future. 

While I’m bought in on the future of the young core they have built, I still believe they could surprise people as soon as this coming year. Being in the play-in tournament and fighting for a seven or eight seed seems like a realistic goal, given the Eastern Conference is loaded with great teams. I would expect the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Cavs, Knicks, Heat, and Hawks to be the top seven teams in the East barring any major injuries, but after that I think the Pistons can compete with teams like the Nets, Bulls, Pacers, and Raptors. All in all, Detroit fans should be looking forward to watching this young core improve together, while winning basketball is played along the way.