What Should We Expect from Victor Wembanyama?

Victor Wembanyama

The NBA season is underway, which means we will soon get to see the debuts of many rookies around the league. Realistically, only some of these rookies will be key contributors for their teams in their first year. Since this is the case, what should we expect from the members of the 2023 NBA draft class? What will their numbers look like? How do I envision their roles on both sides of the ball early on? Let's dive into it.

We will start with the headliner: Victor Wembanyama. Victor was picked first overall to the San Antonio Spurs for good reason. He will reportedly slide right into the starting power forward role for the Spurs, with solid role players around him. He's listed at 7’4” and has a wingspan of around 8 feet, which is the largest in the NBA. 

Offense

The easiest way for Victor to affect the game on offense early on will be as a roller in pick-and-roll scenarios. His size, mobility, and length make him a huge target when rolling or cutting to the basket. He's an ideal lob threat, with a standing reach close to 10 feet. He can be utilized in the dunker spot for easy buckets, while adding an element of verticality to the Spurs offense. He is also a solid offensive rebounder, which will lead to him getting scoring off of put-backs.  Here are some clips of Victor scoring off of pick-and-rolls, lobs, put-backs, and dump-offs.

He has shown some playmaking chops hitting cutters and displaying passing vision as a short roller, so I'll be interested to watch how his passing plays with the added space of the NBA. His height helps him see over the defense, leading to him zipping passes from the top of the key. In the clips below, take note of how Victor displays both a willingness to pass and an understanding of how to create efficient offense for his teammates.  

In his rookie year, I see him mixing in pick-and-pop three-point attempts as well. With time, I see him being a real threat as both a roller and a pop man. 

With that being said, the biggest question mark for Victor is his jump shot. His shooting is not consistent as of now, as he shot 27.2% from three in his last professional season. On the bright side, his mechanics are solid, and he shot 82.7% from the free throw line. The three point percentage may scare some, but I believe he will be a plus shooter long term. 

One area of Victor's offensive game that could use some improvement is his post game. I don't see him being a huge threat in the post his rookie season, as he is prone to getting moved off his spot by stronger big men. This usually leads to him taking tough shots in the midrange, often fading away from the basket. He does have great touch around the rim and in the mid-post, so once he has a larger array of moves, his post game will be a huge plus when attacking mismatches. Here are clips that showcase his potential as a 3-level scorer.

Defense

The main reason Victor is such a polarizing prospect is because of his potential on the defensive end. Paired with his size, his most translatable skill is his rim protection, as he showcases great shot blocking instincts on film. He's extremely mobile for his height and has shown the ability to slide off of his man assignment and get blocks/contests from the weak side. His shot blocking ability is not just in the paint, as his instincts help him block jump shots. He averaged 3.02 blocks per game last season (with international goaltending rules). 

To get Victor away from the paint, teams will inevitably make him guard pick-and-rolls and test his ability to slide with guards if he's forced to switch. This will be a key long-term development for Wembanyama, as we have seen elite rim protectors get played off the floor come playoff time if they can’t move well enough to guard PNRs and/or stay with quicker forwards. 

I'm not worried about Victor guarding in these situations. He can slide his feet well enough to hinder opponents trying to make plays off the dribble. His length makes it tough for opponents to get clean looks in these situations. I also believe Gregg Popovich and the Spurs coaching staff will have a gameplan to keep Wembanyama hovering around the rim, whether that's by utilizing backside switches or sticking him on a non-shooter. If the reports are true that they plan to play him at power forward, the Spurs must believe in Victor's ability to guard the perimeter and stay with quicker forwards. 

When Wembanyama plays center, having Jeremy Sochan play next to him at power forward will be a big help, as Sochans main strength is being a switchable defender. His switchability would let Victor guard the worst shooter on the opposing team and stay near the paint to utilize his rim protection, while Jerermy can match up with the more perimeter-oriented opposing forward. Here are some clips of Wembanyama making impact plays on the defensive end. 

Overview

All in all, Wembanyama will have an elite impact on the defensive end from day one. He may not score as much as some are expecting, but I think with a combination of easy points off dump downs, spot-up three opportunities, and attacking mismatches he will be in the 15-18 points per game range, while averaging close to double-digit rebounds. Only 7 players in NBA history have averaged at least 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game as a rookie. I can see Wembanyama reaching these totals, given the lack of competition when it comes to big men minutes on the Spurs.

From what I've seen on film, I believe that Wembanyama could flirt with an All-Defensive first or second team selection in his rookie year. Fittingly, the last two players to achieve this were Spurs legends: Tim Duncan and David Robinson. 

Long term, the biggest development I'll be tracking for Wembanyama is his long-range shooting, specifically off catch-and-shoot looks. Looking at power forwards and centers who are shooting threats from deep, their 3 point percentage off catch-and-shoot opportunities is usually around 40%. Some examples from last season would be Kevin Durant (43.1%), Al Horford (44.8%), Lauri Markkanen (40.7%), Joel Embiid (39.8%), Nikola Jokic (37.9), and Myles Turner (37.1). I believe that Wembanyama can get to around the 40% mark off catch-and-shoot threes at some point in his career. 

It will also be interesting to see how well Victor can create for himself off the dribble in the NBA. His handle is impressive for a player his size, but I don't think it's tight enough for him to be consistently attacking one-on-one opportunities yet. With that being said, this is one part of his game that has kept on progressing, so I won't be surprised if we see substantial growth in this area early on in his career. Once he's able to create scoring opportunities for himself off the dribble, he’ll be able to unlock his full potential on the offensive end. His shooting and handle would help him eventually be in the 25 points per game range. 

I don’t think it's hyperbolic to say Victor could end up being the greatest defensive player we have ever seen. His long range shooting, handle, and ability to attack mismatches will be what would hypothetically elevate him to an MVP level player. In my opinion, he couldn't be in a better situation to improve these areas of his game and become one of the most impactful players in the NBA.